20 noviembre, 2007

Midiendo el éxito económico de los presidentes de EE.UU.

¿Cómo comparar la gestión de las diferentes administraciones al frente del Poder Ejecutivo? El índice de miseria económica permite medir si se está mejor ahora que bajo un gobierno anterior. Los ganadores: Reagan y Kennedy.

Durante los últimos 50 años, ¿bajo cuál presidente funcionó mejor la economía? La mayoría de los norteamericanos dirían que bajo Ronald Reagan, pero algunos analistas demócratas insisten que fue con Bill Clinton o John F. Kennedy. ¿Cuál es la verdad?

Los presidentes influyen particularmente en cuestiones de impuestos, gastos, regulaciones y comercio exterior, asuntos que en gran parte determinan la tasa de crecimiento económico, pero son frenados por el Congreso, si una o ambas cámaras están dominadas por la oposición. Los presidentes influyen menos en la inflación y en las tasas de interés, las cuales son mayormente determinadas por una Reserva Federal (banco central) independiente. El sí influye en la Reserva Federal con el nombramiento de su presidente y directores.

El incremento de la tasa de crecimiento económico, la creación de empleos, reducción de la inflación, de los intereses y de los impuestos son considerados galardones de éxito presidencial. Un presidente que tiene que corregir políticas económicas fracasadas de su antecesor tendrá mayor dificultad en lograr bajo desempleo, por lo que el grado de mejoría respecto al gobierno anterior es una importante medida del éxito, más que los promedios alcanzados al fin de su mandato.

Un conocido economista demócrata, el fallecido Arthur Okun, inventó el índice de miseria económica (la tasa de inflación más la tasa de desempleo), lo cual nos dice claramente si estamos mejor ahora o bajo el gobierno anterior. Con esa medida, tres presidentes (Kennedy, Reagan y Clinton) mejoraron el desempeño de sus predecesores. El índice de miseria económica cayó más bajo Reagan, a sólo 10,1, mientras que subió horriblemente bajo Carter, a 17,9. Reagan fue N°1, seguido por Clinton y Kennedy, mientras que Carter fue el peor de los últimos nueve presidentes.

La tasa de crecimiento económico a menudo se considera la mejor medida del éxito presidencial. Pero tiene que ser utilizada con cuidado porque a menudo toma seis años a un presidente lograr que el Congreso promulgue sus programas de impuestos y de gastos. Por ello conviene retrasar un año esa medida para que al nuevo presidente no se le carguen las culpas ni las virtudes del anterior.

Kennedy gana bajo el criterio del crecimiento. Tuvo la ventaja de llegar a la presidencia a la mitad de una recuperación económica y también tuvo la sabiduría de bajar los impuestos, todo lo cual resultó en altas tasas de crecimiento durante e inmediatamente después de su gobierno.

Reagan ocupa el segundo puesto en crecimiento, pero la economía estaba estancada y sufría de una inflación de dos dígitos cuando asumió la presidencia. Además, sus rebajas de impuestos no fueron efectivas sino en su segundo año. Clinton está en tercer lugar, heredando una economía en crecimiento que sus políticas convirtieron en recesión.

Reagan ocupa el primer puesto en creación de empleos. Durante su gobierno y el de Clinton se crearon unos 17 millones de puestos, pero Reagan lo logró con una fuerza laboral 18% más pequeña.

Tanto Kennedy como Reagan bajaron los impuestos a todos los niveles de ingresos. Kennedy redujo la tasa máxima del impuesto sobre la renta de 91% a 70% y Reagan de 70% a 28%. Ambas acciones impulsaron un auge económico y la recaudación total de impuestos más bien aumentó. Bajo Reagan la recaudación de impuestos aumentó de 599.000 millones de dólares en 1981 a 991.000 millones de dólares en 1989, a pesar de la reducción de impuestos.

Los críticos de Reagan mantienen que su déficit fiscal hizo que la próxima generación cargara con la deuda. Reagan utilizó esa deuda en parte para aumentar los gastos militares durante la Guerra Fría, de la misma manera como Franklin Roosevelt la utilizó para ganar la Segunda Guerra. Al fin del gobierno de Roosevelt la deuda nacional era más del 100% del PIB, mientras que al final del gobierno de Reagan alcanzaba sólo 41% del PIB. Kennedy nos dejó con una deuda equivalente a 42% del PIB; en 1996, al terminar el primer período de Clinton, la deuda equivalía 48%; mientras que hoy equivale a 37%.

Utilizando cualquier medida, Reagan y Kennedy han sido, por mucho, los presidentes más exitosos de los últimos 50 años. Ambos dejaron una economía más fuerte y prácticamente todos los ciudadanos estaban en mejor situación económica y eran más libres que al comienzo de sus administraciones. Reagan confrontó un comienzo más difícil y el gobierno de Kennedy fue muy corto.

Todavía no sabemos lo que dirá la historia sobre el actual presidente Bush, pero su reducción de impuestos está funcionando tan bien como bajo Kennedy y Reagan. Si la Reserva Federal logra mantener baja la inflación y si el gobierno logra reducir los gastos y las regulaciones, George W. Bush, si es reelecto, todavía tiene el chance de terminar entre los primeros tres.

41 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

I every time emailed this web site post page to all my associates, since if like to read
it next my friends will too.

Also visit my website increase youtube views

Anónimo dijo...

When some one searches for his necessary thing, thus he/she
wishes to be available that in detail, so that thing is maintained
over here.

my webpage: is a micro-blogging service based on the free software statusnet tool. free psn codes

Anónimo dijo...

s license belonging to California Real estate in this period.
We specialize in loans for people even if they have poor or have
not so good credit. With a mortgage broker Rockingham, you can
narrow your search, chose the most suitable loan and have someone to do
all the paperwork and legwork for you.

my blog; fha loan amount []

Anónimo dijo...

Howdy, There's no doubt that your site may be having browser compatibility
issues. When I look at your web site in Safari,
it looks fine however, if opening in I.E., it's got some overlapping issues.
I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up!
Other than that, excellent website!

Review mmy weblog: cosmitone erase instant facelift serum

Anónimo dijo...

It's actually a nice and helpful piece of information.
I am glad that you simply shared this useful info with us.
Please stay us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

Feel free to surf to my site; เต็นท์ผ้าใบ

Anónimo dijo...

Thus, the top approach to download music in your audio player is to discover a legitimate site.


My web blog :: itunes download movies free

Anónimo dijo...

IntroThis will be my first of many guides that will teach you
how to play the game just like in any other strategy game,
and for good reason. And zero trophies, as you can see it's all advertised.
Properly investigate website to discover how reliable it's very as not
necessarily to wind up introducing malware in your system all within the
title of getting free gems. And they want clash of clans hacks to be the key parts.


Also visit my web blog clash of clans hack

Anónimo dijo...

always i used to read maller articles which as well clear their
motive, and that is also appening with this article which I am reading at this time.



Feel ree to surf to my homepage :: west palm beach local movers

Anónimo dijo...

I’m not that muсh of a online reader too be honest bbut уour
sites really nice, kеep it up! I'll go ahead and bookmark уour
website tо сome back later on. Cheers

Mƴ web blog :: nutriberry slim cost (alicesnap.com)

Anónimo dijo...

It's fantastic that you are getting ideas from this paragraph as well as from our argument made at this place.



My blog ... Supra Cleanse 350 and garcinium (blogspot.com.au)

Anónimo dijo...

Good day I am so happy I found your website, I really found you by error,
while I was looking on Aol for something else, Regardless I am here now
and would just like to say cheers for a tremendous post and a all round enjoyable blog (I also love the theme/design),
I don't have time to read it all at the moment but I have book-marked
it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the superb job.


Also visit my webpage ... billigt mobilabonnement

Anónimo dijo...

Good day very nice blog!! Guy .. Excellent .. Superb .. I'll bookmark your blog
and take the feeds additionally? I am glad to find a
lot of helpful information right here within
the submit, we'd like work out more strategies on this regard,
thank you for sharing. . . . . .

Feel free to visit my weblog :: two women

Anónimo dijo...

The first step is to isolate the room in which the
mold outbreak has taken place. If anyone in your home or office seems
to get sick primarily when they are in that building, there is a strong possibility that mold is the cause.

Moreover, a lot of chemical substances and personal protective gears and equipment
are also required to do the job safely.

my weblog mold removal las vegas

Anónimo dijo...

The number one forecast is revealed in grey text directly within the browse box,
to end typing as soon while you see what you need.
If you're a digital photographer who still does not have compelling on the web presence and is still insisting on charging one ridiculous level for digital negatives out of fear that your
customers might take them somewhere else to get them printed,
how long do you would imagine you are going to last.
More than anything, we should be your self in the interview.



Stop by my website :: best seo services

Anónimo dijo...

I am sure this article has touched all the internet viewers, its
really really nice paragraph on building up new web site.


My web blog ... Pure colon Cleanse Diet

Anónimo dijo...

How is diminished value determined and what happens when you sell your vehicle after that accident.

Since personal injury are broadly categorized into various types,
you should know which attorney you should hire to represent
your case in a lawsuit. This is the reason you may
want to consider appointing a work injury lawyer.

Feel free to surf to my weblog gary neinstein lawyer

Anónimo dijo...

Thank you for every other fantastic article. The place else may just anybody
get that kind of information in such an ideal approach of writing?
I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such information.

Feel free to visit my blog; castle clash hack

Anónimo dijo...

Yes! Finally something about get ex girlfriend.

my webpage ... questions to ask a girl

Anónimo dijo...

I had no issues downloading itt annd the game was absolutely free.
Judging by some of the levels, you will need all the livves you can get.
In tthe 1976 movie, Network, character Howard Beale noted
that, "I'M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE.

my web blog - Hay Day Hack

Anónimo dijo...

Great beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your site, how can i subscribe for a blog site?

The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny
bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided bright clear concept

My homepage ... google (http://google.com)

Anónimo dijo...

Hello everyone, it's my first pay a quick visit at this
website, and post is actually fruitful for me, keep up posting such articles.


My web-site - Cardio Core; www.5starweddingtv.com,

Anónimo dijo...

I'm not sure why but this site is loading incredibly slow for me.
Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end?
I'll check back later and see if the problem still exists.


Check out my site: muscle growth supplements

Anónimo dijo...

Your style is very unique compared to other folks I have read stuff from.
Thank you for posting when you've got the opportunity, Guess I'll just bookmark this page.


My weblog - where to get Green coffee bean extract

Anónimo dijo...

Wow, this paragraph is fastidious, my sister is analyzing such things, so I am going to inform her.


my website colon detox cleanse

Anónimo dijo...

Great post. I'm experiencing a few of these issues as well..



Also visit my web site: miracle Phytoceramides (simplefocus.com)

Anónimo dijo...

Asking questions are in fact pleasant thing if you are not
understanding something entirely, but this post presents pleasant understanding yet.


Also visit my website; diet Ultimo Weight Loss

Anónimo dijo...

Hi there, just wanted to tell you, I liked this
article. It was funny. Keep on posting!

Feel free to visit my blog post where can i find garcinia cambogia

Anónimo dijo...

I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your sites
really nice, keep it up! I'll go ahead and bookmark your website to come
back down the road. Many thanks

My weblog ... garcinia Cambogia Is it Safe

Anónimo dijo...

We're a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community.

Your web site provided us with valuable information to work on. You've done an impressive job and our whole community will be thankful to you.



Feel free to visit my page :: superior velvet spray

Anónimo dijo...

Pretty! This was a really wonderful post. Thanks for
supplying this information.

Here is my site juice diet

Anónimo dijo...

When I initially commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four
e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you
can remove me from that service? Bless you!

Feel free to surf to my web-site - renique

Anónimo dijo...

I rarely drop comments, however i did some searching and wound
up here Sin título. And I do have a couple of questions for you if it's allright.

Is it simply me or does it look like a few of the responses look as if they are written by brain dead visitors?
:-P And, if you are posting at additional online sites, I would like to follow anything fresh you have to
post. Would you list of all of your communal sites like your twitter feed, Facebook page or
linkedin profile?

Feel free to visit my blog; xtreme muscle supplement

Anónimo dijo...

Wonderful blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News.
Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get
there! Cheers

My site - tuneup utilities

Anónimo dijo...

In this way you'll be able to concentrate on the stores choice
of one or the other.
While you replace existing windows with dual pane windows,
you will not need to raise the size of the window
opening.

Feel free to visit my webpage - wechat for pc (http://wechatforpcwindows.webstarts.com)

Anónimo dijo...

Hey there this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or
if you have to manually code with HTML. I'm starting a blog soon but have no coding
skills so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience.

Any help would be enormously appreciated!

Feel free to surf to my homepage :: calcium 1500 mg

Anónimo dijo...

Heya i am for the first time here. I came across this board and I
find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back and
aid others like you aided me.

Take a look at my site; important home improvements; ,

Anónimo dijo...

Wow! Finally I got a web site from where I can genuinely obtain helpful
information regarding my study and knowledge.

Feel free to visit my web-site: making money from amazon

Anónimo dijo...

For latest information you have to pay a visit internet and
on world-wide-web I found this site as a most excellent web page for most recent updates.



My web-site; кредит без справок и поручителей от 18 лет

Anónimo dijo...

You have to restart or reboot your system in order to
clear these files and restore the speed. You may also want
a digital display that tracks heart rate, distance
traveled and calories burn. Although there are an abundance of organic hair care products flooding the forex market, it
is always smart to read the entire ingredients list in order
that the whole product is natural rather than a shampoo that
possesses one organic ingredient as well as the rest toxic chemicals.


Also visit my web page; médicaments en vente libre sur internet

Anónimo dijo...

You have made some good points there. I looked on the web for more information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.


Feel free to visit my homepage; plumbing snake Troon

Anónimo dijo...

Hi there it's me, I am also visiting this web site daily, this website is
in fact pleasant and the viewers are really sharing
good thoughts.

Also visit my blog post calories burned calculator