28 junio, 2013

Argentina sufre de inconsistencia temporal


por Adrián Ravier
Adrián Ravier es Doctor en Economía Aplicada por la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid y profesor de Macroeconomía en la Universidad Francisco Marroquín.
Es significativo el número de economistas que han llamado la atención acerca del cortoplacismo de las políticas económicas que se vienen aplicando en la Argentina, y la preocupación que se abre en el entorno político y económico para el mediano y largo plazo. Técnicamente, podemos definir este problema como inconsistencia temporal. En la política y en la economía, se trata de aquella situación en la que el gobierno tiene incentivos para abandonar un plan óptimo de largo plazo, reoptimizando constantemente sus políticas. Como su nombre lo indica, cada reoptimización es óptima en cada momento del tiempo, pero no lo son desde el punto de vista del plan original a largo plazo, y por lo tanto, dan lugar a resultados subóptimos o inferiores. De esta manera, la ausencia de una política de largo plazo y el interés del gobierno por ir reoptimizando sus políticas por períodos cortos de tiempo conduce a la Argentina a empeorar su situación de largo plazo. Continue reading

Argentina: Muchos candidatos, pocas elecciones – por Adam Dubove

“Más que en cualquier otro tiempo de la historia -dice Woody Allen– la humanidad se encuentra ante una encrucijada. Una senda lleva hacia la desesperación y a la total desesperanza; la otra, hacia la extinción total. Recemos para que tengamos la sabiduría de escoger correctamente”. Es probable que, después del tan comentado cierre de listas de candidatos para las elecciones a senadores y diputados nacionales del próximo octubre, muchos argentinos estén de acuerdo con la frase del cineasta norteamericano. Continue reading

Ecuador: Correa renuncia unilateralmente al ATPDA con los Estados Unidos a un mes de su vencimiento – El Universo

Rafael-CorreaBarkingEl secretario de Comunicación, Fernando Alvarado, anunció este jueves que Ecuador renuncia unilateralmente y de manera irrevocable al Tratado de Preferencias Arancelarias (ATPDEA) con Estados Unidos.
Frente a la amenaza de ciertos sectores políticos, grupos mediáticos, Ecuador manifiesta que el país no acepta presiones ni amenazas de nadie, dijo Alvarado, quien agregó que el beneficio de la ATPDEA se había convertido en un chantaje. Continue reading

Argentina: La reacción de Dilma – La voz del Interior

Puede llamárselos indignados, caceroleros, o simplemente ciudadanos brasileños disconformes con el gobierno de la presidenta Dilma Rousseff.
Los motivos de las multitudinarias manifestaciones en Brasil incluyen varios elementos (el precio del boleto de ómnibus, la organización de un torneo internacional de fútbol, la corrupción, etcétera). Sin embargo, se advierte que en el fondo hay una capa de la ciudadanía enojada con el gobierno. Y muchos de sus integrantes protestan en la calle y generan 
disturbios, lo que provoca una desmedida reacción policial. Continue reading

Argentina: Acosan a miembros de la Corte Suprema: AFIP investiga a Lorenzetti y a sus hijos – Clarín

Se los reveló el presidente del Tribunal a los otros jueces tras el fallo contra la reforma judicial del Gobierno.
El presidente de la Corte Suprema de Justicia de la Nación, Ricardo Lorenzetti, les dijo ayer a sus pares de tribunal que es investigado por la Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP), según revelaron a Clarín fuentes judiciales.
El comentario fue realizado por el presidente de la Corte durante el habitual encuentro plenario semanal de los días martes de todos los ministros. Ayer no estuvo presente Raúl Zaffaroni, de viaje en el exterior, pero sí se encontraban los otros cinco ministros que integran el tribunal. Continue reading

The Biggest Ponzi Scheme In The History Of The World

America Is BrokeDid you know that you are involved in the most massive Ponzi scheme that has ever existed?  To illustrate my point, allow me to tell you a little story.  Once upon a time, there was a man named Sam.  When he was younger, he had been a very principled young man that had worked incredibly hard and that had built a large number of tremendously successful businesses.  He became fabulously wealthy and he accumulated far more gold than anyone else on the planet.  But when he started to get a little older he forgot the values of his youth.  He started making really bad decisions and some of his relatives started to take advantage of him.  One particularly devious relative was a nephew named Fred.  One day Fred approached his uncle Sam with a scheme that his friends the bankers had come up with.  What happened next would change the course of Sam’s life forever. Continue reading

The Trigger Has Been Pulled And The Slaughter Of The Bonds Has Begun

The Bears Are Unleashed On Wall StreetWhat does it look like when a 30 year bull market ends abruptly?  What happens when bond yields start doing things that they haven’t done in 50 years?  If your answer to those questions involves the word “slaughter”, you are probably on the right track.  Right now, bonds are being absolutely slaughtered, and this is only just the beginning.  Over the last several years, reckless bond buying by the Federal Reserve has forced yields down to absolutely ridiculous levels.  For example, it simply is not rational to lend the U.S. government money at less than 3 percent when the real rate of inflation is somewhere up around 8 to 10 percent.  But when he originally announced the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that he intended to force interest rates to go down, and lots of bond investors made a lot of money riding the bubble that Bernanke created.  But now that Bernanke has indicated that the bond buying will be coming to an end, investors are going into panic mode and the bond bubble is starting to burst.  One hedge fund executive told CNBC that the “feeling you are getting out there is that people are selling first and asking questions later”.  And the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries just keeps going up.  Today it closed at 2.59 percent, and many believe that it is going to go much higher unless the Fed intervenes.  If the Fed does not intervene and allows the bubble that it has created to burst, we are going to see unprecedented carnage. Continue reading

Not Prepared: 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse

Tornado Damage - Photo by JOE M500The vast majority of Americans are going to be absolutely blindsided by what is coming.  They don’t understand how our financial system works, they don’t understand how vulnerable it is, and most of them blindly trust that our leaders know exactly what they are doing and that they will be able to fix our problems.  As a result, most Americans are simply not prepared for the massive storm that is heading our way.  Most American families are living paycheck to paycheck, most of them are not storing up emergency food and supplies, and only a very small percentage of them are buying gold and silver for investment purposes.   They seem to have forgotten what happened back in 2008.  When the financial markets crashed, millions of Americans lost their jobs.  Because most of them were living on the financial edge, millions of them also lost their homes.  Unfortunately, most Americans seem convinced that it will not happen again.  Right now we seem to be living in a “hope bubble” and people have become very complacent.  For a while there, being a “prepper” was very trendy, but now concern about a coming economic crisis seems to have subsided.  What a tragic mistake.  As I pointed out yesterday, our entire financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme, and there are already signs that our financial markets are about to implode once again.  Those that have not made any preparations for what is coming are going to regret it bitterly.  The following are 17 signs that most Americans will be wiped out by the coming economic collapse… Continue reading

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