Kenya

A peace deal at last

Kenya’s quarrelling leaders have pulled back from the brink

KOFI ANNAN, the UN’s former secretary-general, is a patient man, but not that patient. After spending a month overseeing agonisingly slow negotiations between Kenya’s government and opposition, he was close to a power-sharing deal to save the country from more killing and instability. But once all the peripheral issues had been tidied up and the negotiators were left to share out raw power, the talks stalled yet again. At the beginning of the week Mr Annan suspended them: it was time, he said, for the disputed president, Mwai Kibaki, and the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, to face up to their responsibilities and cut a deal themselves.

Mr Annan’s guile worked. On Thursday February 28th, two days after the suspension, the hitherto obdurate Kenyan rivals, aided by the African Union’s new chairman, Jakaya Kikwete, who is also president of neighbouring Tanzania, did Mr Annan’s bidding. They struck a deal which all Kenyans hope will stick.

Mr Odinga will become prime minister, with wide-ranging executive powers; Mr Kibaki will stay as president. Cabinet posts will be shared between their nominees. Parliament will entrench some constitutional amendments to shift the balance of power between president and prime minister.

It remains to be seen how the sharing of power will work in practice, especially after all the bad blood that has been spilt between the pair over many years. But the creation of the post of prime minister, which had not existed, was a victory for Mr Odinga. Mr Kibaki’s people had previously insisted that, if there were to be a prime minister, he should have limited executive powers. This, it seems, will not be the case.

The other most ticklish issue was whether the presidential election, which most independent observers reckoned was rigged, would be run again—and, if so, when. It is unlikely to be held in the near future. But it remained unclear whether Mr Kibaki would serve a full five-year presidential term.

It will take time for confidence to be rebuilt. Well over 1,000 people have been killed in the post-election violence. At least 300,000 people have been displaced by ethnic cleansing. Many of them will be wary of returning to their old homes soon. Kenya’s economy has taken a bad knock. Above all, the country’s reputation as a hub of stability and moderation in a volatile region has been sorely damaged. Even if the agreement signed this week holds, things will not easily return to normal.