Top Paraguay threat: Nation may crumble

by Andres Oppenheimer

Political satirist P.J. O'Rourke wrote a few years ago that Paraguay is a country in the middle of ''nowhere and famous for nothing.'' So why should we care about Paraguay?, I asked one of the leading U.S. experts on Paraguay shortly after Sunday's historic opposition victory that ended 60 years of one-party rule.

Well, we may hear a lot more about Paraguay soon, said Frank Mora, a professor of national security at the National War College in Washington, D.C., and author of a recently released book on Paraguay-U.S. relations.

The United States and Paraguay's South American neighbors may soon have more reasons to be worried about the country's vast lawless areas that have long been used as operations centers by arms dealers, drug traffickers and Hezbollah terrorist support groups, the professor said.

Mora says he is ''pretty pessimistic'' about Paraguay's future despite Sunday's election victory by Fernando Lugo, a former Roman Catholic bishop who defeated the long-ruling Colorado Party. The Colorado Party had backed the 35-year dictatorship of Gen. Alfredo Stroessner, and -- thanks to a massive patronage system -- had until now won every election after the strongman's 1989 ouster.

Contrary to press reports that suggest that Lugo may become a close ally of Venezuela's narcissist-Leninist leader Hugo Chávez -- who welcomed Lugo's election victory with greater than usual happiness -- Mora says that Paraguay's biggest threat is not Chávez-styled authoritarianism but becoming ungovernable.

''Everything illicit goes through Paraguay,'' Mora said. ``If the country becomes ungovernable, if it becomes a failed state, it will become an even greater threat.''

He added that it will be a bigger challenge for Argentina, Brazil and its other neighbors than for the United States ``because ungoverned areas attract all kinds of bad things.''

ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES

What makes you think that Paraguay's new president will not be able to effectively control the country? I asked Mora. After all, recent Colorado Party governments have not been able to prevent some parts of Paraguay from becoming hotbeds of illegal activities, including Islamic terrorist fundraising centers, I reminded him.

U.S. Southern Command chief Adm. James Stavridis has said that the tri-border area surrounding Paraguay's Ciudad del Este has long been ``a zone where we believe there is money-laundering, proselytizing, recruitment, illicit trafficking and narcotics activity connected to radical Islamic groups. Some of those activities can be traced to specific terrorist groups like Hezbollah.''

But Mora said there are three reasons why he fears an even greater political vacuum in Paraguay.

First, there will be a potentially crippling political infighting within Lugo's coalition, which includes about two dozen political parties and movements ranging from radical leftist pro-Chávez groups to fiercely anti-Chávez groups. Lugo's various coalition members only shared one goal: ousting the Colorado Party.

''I have a sense that these competing groups will start fighting for control of the coalition,'' Mora said. ``Lugo is not a politician. I am afraid that he will not be skillful enough to orchestrate and manage all of these very ideologically different groups.''

Second, Lugo is not likely to have a majority in Congress, and it will be very hard for him to dismantle the Colorado Party's control of the government bureaucracy. The Colorados may use it to weaken the new president and to keep him from fulfilling his campaign promises.

Third, Lugo has raised extraordinary expectations among Paraguayans. ''There will be a lot of frustration pretty soon,'' Mora said.

Others are not as pessimistic. In a telephone interview from Paraguay, political analyst Alfredo Boccia Paz told me that Lugo has surprised many by his moderation and his ability to keep his coalition together.

''He has a rare kind of charisma: He's boring, but people sort of like him,'' Boccia Paz said. ``That could save him.''

BEST TO BACK LUGO

My Opinion: Mora's concerns reflect the current post-Sept. 11 U.S. national security thinking, which holds that the biggest threat to U.S. national security does not come from hostile governments but from failed states that can become a safe haven for international terrorist groups.

Ironically, regardless of whether Lugo tilts toward Chávez or not, it may be in the U.S. and Latin America's best interest that Lugo succeeds -- and that Paraguay remains a country best known for nothing.