Colombia: The FARC's Carrot-and-Stick Strategy

Summary

LUIS ROBAYO/AFP/Getty Images

A Colombian protester with a sign reading, "Release Them Right Now!" in Cali, Valle del Cauca department, Colombia

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced plans to release 10 hostages and cease the kidnapping of civilians for extortion. Simultaneously, the FARC remains engaged in its militant activities, devoting particular attention to energy extraction facilities. Claims that a major oil producer may halt operations due to security concerns highlights the ability of the FARC to pressure Colombia on key economic concerns while simultaneously offering peaceful concessions. The FARC hopes to exploit these needs to draw the government into negotiations, but the government will continue to be cautious about agreeing to peace talks.

EBRAHIM NOROOZI/AFP/Getty Images

An Iranian submarine during the Velayat 90 naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 3

The Iranian air force announced Feb. 20 that it had begun a four-day drill covering a zone of 190,000 square kilometers (73,300 square miles) in southern Iran. The exercises, dubbed "Sarollah," would be held to counter "all possible threats, especially to public, important and nuclear centers." The exercises follow the Feb. 19 start of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) own "Valfajr" ground forces exercises in the deserts of central Iran.

Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this document to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week.

In this week's Geopolitical Weekly, George Friedman discussed the geopolitical cycles that change with each generation. Frequently, especially in recent years, those geopolitical cycles have intersected with changes in the way the tactic of terrorism is employed and in the actors employing it.
The Arab terrorism that began in the 1960s resulted from the Cold War and the Soviet decision to fund, train and otherwise encourage groups in the Middle East. The Soviet Union and its Middle Eastern proxies also sponsored Marxist terrorist groups in Europe and Latin America. They even backed the Japanese Red Army terrorist group. Places like South Yemen and Libya became havens where Marxist militants of many different nationalities gathered to learn terrorist tradecraft, often instructed by personnel from the Soviet KGB or the East German Stasi and from other militants.

The State of the World: Explaining U.S. Strategy

By George Friedman
The fall of the Soviet Union ended the European epoch, the period in which European power dominated the world. It left the United States as the only global power, something for which it was culturally and institutionally unprepared. Since the end of World War II, the United States had defined its foreign policy in terms of its confrontation with the Soviet Union. Virtually everything it did around the world in some fashion related to this confrontation. The fall of the Soviet Union simultaneously freed the United States from a dangerous confrontation and eliminated the focus of its foreign policy.

Somali Piracy Update: The End of Monsoon Season

Summary

U.S. Navy via Getty Images

A U.S. Navy warship rescues an Iranian fishing boat crew held by pirates Jan. 5

Monsoon season in the Indian Ocean is set to end sometime in late February. Somali pirates will take advantage of the calmer waters to enlarge their presence in the area. But several factors, including the use of armed contractors on commercial vessels, land-based security clampdowns and a more sophisticated international military response, may limit the pirates' success.

Analysis

CARTAS LIBERALES

Páginas

28 febrero, 2012

Colombia: The FARC's Carrot-and-Stick Strategy

Iran: New Military Exercises, But No New Threat

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Feb. 27, 2012

The Myth of the End of Terrorism. By Scott Stewart